On October 20, 2024, Moldova faces a defining moment. The referendum on embedding European Union (EU) membership as a constitutional “strategic objective” and the presidential election will shape Moldova’s leadership and its trajectory toward European integration. These pivotal events come amid geopolitical uncertainty, as the Kremlin continues efforts to destabilize Moldova and thwart its European aspirations. The outcome will not only determine Moldova’s future but will resonate throughout the region, influencing the EU’s enlargement process and challenging Russian influence well into the 2030s, writes Iulian Groza at the reunir.
Moldova’s Road to EU Membership
Moldova’s European path over the past two decades has been fraught with challenges, setbacks, and recoveries. Russia’s war against Ukraine has further reshaped Europe’s security architecture and accelerated the EU’s enlargement policy. Today, Moldova stands closer than ever to EU membership, with official accession negotiations beginning in June 2024. This milestone reflects Moldova’s strategic choice to align with the European project, distancing itself from its Soviet past and Russia’s influence. In the past two and a half years, Moldova has moved from being an associated state with no clear accession prospects to a candidate country aiming to join the EU within the next six years.
Since President Maia Sandu’s election in 2020, Moldova has deepened its ties with the EU and implemented crucial reforms. In early 2024, the Moldovan government adopted the National EU Accession Plan, a comprehensive roadmap prioritizing reforms in justice, public administration, and economic development. Moldova’s goal is to fully harmonize its laws and institutions with EU standards, integrate into the EU single market, and prepare for full EU membership by 2030. Until then, the implementation of the Association Agreement remains a vital step in Moldova’s European integration process. This is not just about meeting technical criteria but securing a future of prosperity, stability, and peace for all Moldovans and future generations.
The ongoing bilateral screening process for the Accession Treaty, which began in July 2024, marks a critical phase in Moldova’s road to the EU membership. By the end of the year, evaluations will cover fundamental values, and formal negotiations on Chapter 23, Justice and Fundamental Rights, could begin in 2025. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has announced that Moldova could be ready to join the EU by the end of 2029, provided it successfully completes negotiations, a process expected to take at least three years.
FOR THE MOST IMPORTANT NEWS, FOLLOW US ON TWITTER!
However, the road to European integration is far from easy. It requires sustained effort and political will from the Moldovan government, political parties across the spectrum, and its citizens. Continued support from the EU and other international partners will also be crucial. One of Moldova’s most significant challenges is the fight against corruption and justice reform. The EU has emphasized that respect for the rule of law is a non-negotiable condition for membership. The ongoing vetting process of judges and prosecutors is essential but challenging, highlighting the depth of transformation needed to meet European standards.
In addition to these domestic challenges, Moldova faces a hostile geopolitical environment, particularly due to Kremlin interference. Russia’s hybrid warfare against Moldova includes disinformation campaigns, cyberattacks, illegal political financing, and the exploitation of internal divisions. These activities threaten the integrity of both the referendum and the presidential election. However, Moldova is not alone in this struggle. Strong support from the EU and the US has bolstered Moldova’s security. While Moldova is more resilient today, vulnerabilities remain.
EU Support and Moldova’s Path Forward
The EU’s support for Moldova has been multifaceted, including efforts to strengthen Moldova’s energy security, reduce its dependence on Russian gas, and combat disinformation. The deployment of the EU Partnership Mission in Moldova, alongside financial support through the European Peace Facility (EPF), has significantly bolstered Moldova’s defence capabilities. Over the past three years, the EU has provided over EUR 2.2 billion in assistance to Moldova, with EUR 137 million specifically allocated to defence, nearly tripling the country’s defence budget.
In a historic move, the EU recently approved the Economic Growth Plan for Moldova, an unprecedented financial package worth EUR 1.8 billion for the 2025-2027 period. This plan, designed to accelerate Moldova’s EU accession, represents the largest economic support the EU has provided to Moldova since its independence. Launching the plan in Chisinau, President Ursula von der Leyen underscored that the initiative has the potential to “double the size of Moldova’s economy in a decade” by creating jobs, improving infrastructure, and boosting services. Josep Borrell, the EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs, emphasized that the plan would strengthen Moldova’s security, peace, and prosperity while paving the way for its gradual integration into the EU Single Market.
The EU Referendum and Presidential Election: Broader Geopolitical Stakes
The upcoming referendum provides Moldovans with a historic opportunity to enshrine their European future in the Constitution, affirming an “irreversible” path toward EU membership. Public opinion on EU accession has improved significantly over the past few years. A poll conducted by IRI in July 2024 indicated that 53% of citizens planned to vote in favour of the referendum. By October, support had risen to 63%, according to a Watchdog poll, while opposition to EU membership had decreased to 32%. The number of undecided voters has also dropped, and these figures do not include Moldova’s large diaspora, which overwhelmingly supports EU integration. Yet, pro-Russian factions are working to undermine the referendum by promoting voter boycotts and casting doubt on the benefits of EU integration. These groups, backed by Moscow, hope to prevent the referendum from reaching the required one-third voter turnout threshold necessary for the results to be valid.
Simultaneously, the presidential election will determine whether President Maia Sandu, a staunch advocate of Moldova’s EU integration, will be re-elected. Since taking office in 2020, Sandu has firmly anchored her policies in EU integration, viewing it as essential for Moldova’s long-term economic and political stability. Despite signs of economic recovery, with GDP growth forecasted at 4% for 2024, many Moldovans remain concerned about corruption, inflation, and the cost of living. Sandu’s opponents, many of whom are aligned with Russian interests, have exploited these economic concerns, using sophisticated disinformation campaigns to create a volatile political landscape in the lead-up to the election.
As election day approaches, Maia Sandu remains the leading candidate in the presidential race, with polls indicating a significant lead over her opponents. Still, the results remains uncertain. It is unclear whether Sandu’s support will translate into an outright victory in the first round or whether a second round of elections will be needed.
The outcome of Moldova’s referendum and presidential election will also influence next year’s parliamentary elections. Beyond Moldova’s borders, these elections are crucial for the EU, as they represent both an opportunity and a challenge. Successfully integrating Moldova into the EU would be a significant geopolitical victory, demonstrating the EU’s capacity to expand its influence and consolidate its values in the face of external threats. Failure, however, would weaken the EU’s position in Eastern Europe and embolden Russia to further its ambitions in the region. Moscow seeks to prevent Moldova from fully integrating into the EU, aiming to undermine the rules-based international order that the EU represents and establish a sphere of influence over its neighbours. Moldova is not just fighting for its own future. It is a frontline state in the broader struggle for Europe’s future.
The choice before Moldovan citizens is clear: to define Moldova’s place in the European family of democracies, securing prosperity, security, and peace, or to risk falling back under Russian influence, which today spreads war, fear, and destruction.
A Decisive Moment for Moldova’s European Future
As Moldova approaches the pivotal vote on October 20, the stakes could not be higher. The referendum and presidential election will determine not only Moldova’s future but also its place in Europe. For Moldova, the path to EU membership is about more than just economic growth and political stability. It is about securing a future rooted in democracy, freedom, and the rule of law. The choices Moldovans make on this day will resonate far beyond their borders, shaping the future of European integration and the broader geopolitical landscape.