For the first time in eight years, the annual inflation rate remained within ±1.5 percentage points of the 5 percent target for 12 consecutive months, according to data presented today by National Bank of Moldova (NBM) Governor Anca Dragu, who released the fourth inflation report.
“Between July and September 2024, the annual inflation rate followed a slightly upward trend, staying within ±1.5 percentage points of the 5 percent target. It marks the first time in eight years that inflation has stayed within this target range for an entire year. The rate rose from 3.8 percent in June to 5.2 percent in September 2024,” Dragu noted.
Dragu attributed the inflation increase in Q3 2024 to sector-specific challenges, including summer droughts that raised food prices. However, subdued domestic demand, lower prices for domestic industrial output, and stable food and oil prices on international markets exerted a disinflationary influence on the annual inflation rate.
NBM forecasts suggest that inflation may accelerate through early next year before gradually declining through the forecast period, except for a slight uptick in Q4 2025.
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Projections indicate that inflation could peak at 6.2 percent in Q1 2025 and reach a low of 3.7 percent in Q2 2026. The NBM expects an average annual inflation rate of 4.6 percent in 2024 and 4.9 percent in 2025.
In Q3 2026, inflation will be driven mainly by food prices and core inflation, with minimal impact from regulated and fuel prices. Conversely, fuel prices will exert downward pressure on inflation from Q4 2024 for three consecutive quarters.