The National Bank of Moldova (NBM) projects that inflation in the country will begin a moderate downward trajectory starting in Q2 2025, eventually returning to its target range of 5% ±1.5 p.p. by the end of the year, according to its latest macroeconomic forecast.
Key Highlights:
- Annual inflation rose to 8.8% in March 2025, largely due to temporary spikes in regulated tariffs (gas, electricity, heating).
- Without these regulated price increases, inflation would have stood at 6.3%, within the target range.
- The NBM has implemented base rate adjustments, which are beginning to show a dampening effect on inflation.
- Core inflation is expected to decline in early 2025 and then remain relatively stable through Q1 2026.
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Outlook by Category:
- Food prices: Rising in Q1 2025, decreasing mid-year, then increasing again by late 2026.
- Regulated prices: Stabilizing, with a significant drop projected in Q1 2027.
- Fuel prices: Expected to decline in 2025 and early 2026, before rising in H2 2026.
External Risk Factors:
- Trade tensions linked to newly imposed U.S. tariffs and geopolitical instability from the Russia–Ukraine war.
- European economic slowdown and fiscal policy shifts may affect price stability.
- Ongoing volatility in global energy markets due to OPEC+ decisions and gas reserve strategies in Europe.
Demand and Fiscal Impact:
The NBM forecasts negative aggregate demand throughout the period due to tight monetary policy and weak external demand. However, positive fiscal impulses in Q1–Q3 and in the last quarter will help mitigate this pressure.
The full inflation forecast report and presentation are available on the National Bank of Moldova’s official website.