Moldova’s inflation rate is expected to accelerate in the final months of the year, with the National Bank of Moldova (NBM) forecasting annual inflation to rise from 7.7% in the third quarter to 9.2% in the fourth quarter of 2026, according to its August Inflation Report.
Inflation is expected to remain above the upper limit of the NBM’s target range until mid-2027. The central bank expects inflation to return to the target range of 5% ±1.5 percentage points only in the third quarter of next year, when the annual rate is projected to fall to 5.6%, BANI.MD reports.
For the full year 2026, the NBM forecasts average inflation of 7.2%. In 2027, the average rate is expected to reach 6.2%. Compared with its previous forecast, the central bank raised its inflation estimate by 0.2 percentage points for 2026 and by 0.4 percentage points for 2027.
Regulated prices and fuel are expected to be among the main drivers of higher prices. The NBM forecasts annual growth of 15.8% in regulated prices in the fourth quarter of 2026, while fuel prices are expected to increase by 19.2%.
On average, fuel prices are projected to be 15.1% higher in 2026, while regulated prices are expected to rise by 9.4%. The central bank’s forecast takes into account possible tariff adjustments, international energy price developments and changes in excise duties.
Food prices will also contribute to inflationary pressures. The NBM forecasts average food price increases of 6.6% in 2026 and 6.4% in 2027. Core inflation, which excludes regulated prices and other volatile components, is projected at 5.6% this year.
After reaching 9.2% in the fourth quarter of 2026, annual inflation is expected to decline to 8.8% in the first quarter of 2027, 6.9% in the second quarter and 5.6% in the third quarter.
By the end of 2027, the NBM forecasts annual inflation at 3.8%.