Moldova’s economy is expected to grow more slowly than previously forecast. The Ministry of Economic Development and Digitalization has lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2026 from 2.2% to 1.8%, citing a deteriorating global economic environment, the conflict in the Middle East, higher energy prices and geopolitical uncertainty.
According to the updated macroeconomic forecast, Moldova’s GDP will reach approximately 388 billion lei, or 19.4 billion euros, this year.
The ministry expects economic growth to gradually accelerate in the following years, reaching 2.8% in 2027, 3.2% in 2028 and 3.4% in 2029. GDP is projected to reach 497.4 billion lei, or 24.5 billion euros, by 2029.
The new forecast is more pessimistic than the one released in spring. At that time, the ministry projected 2.2% growth in 2026, followed by growth of 3.6%, 4% and 4.2% in the next three years. The forecasts for the entire 2026-2029 period have therefore been revised downward.
Investment is expected to play an important role in the economic recovery. After growing by 16.9% in 2025, investment is projected to increase by around 4.5% in 2026. If the geopolitical situation stabilizes, the growth rate could reach 7.2-8.5% annually in 2027-2029.
Consumer spending is also expected to slow. The ministry forecasts growth of just 1.6% in 2026, compared with 3.5% last year. Inflation, higher energy costs and more expensive imported goods are expected to put pressure on household purchasing power.
At the same time, the average salary is expected to rise to 17,000 lei in 2026 and reach approximately 22,700 lei by 2029.
Prices remain a concern, however. Average inflation is forecast at 7.3% in 2026 and could reach 8.2% by the end of the year. The ministry expects inflation to moderate to around 5-6% in subsequent years.
On the external side, exports of goods and services are projected to increase by 11.7% in 2026, while imports are expected to grow by 7.5%.
Agriculture is forecast to expand by around 7%, while industrial output could increase by 5%. Construction, however, is expected to stagnate this year.
The ministry’s forecast is broadly in line with estimates from international institutions. The European Commission expects Moldova’s economy to grow by 2% in 2026, while the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund forecast growth of 1.9%.
For 2027, international forecasts range between 2.2% and 3.8%.
The ministry warned that Moldova’s economic performance will continue to depend on geopolitical and energy developments. New external shocks, extreme weather events or an escalation of regional conflicts could affect investment, prices and household incomes.