The European Commission is set to present on Tuesday, after months of delays, proposals aimed at addressing concerns among the EU’s 27 member states over the bloc’s possible future enlargement, starting with Ukraine, AFP reports.
The measures, described in Brussels as “pre-enlargement” arrangements, are intended to prepare the European Union for the potential impact of having more than 30 member states.
Four candidate countries are currently considered relatively advanced in their accession negotiations: Montenegro, Albania, Moldova and Ukraine.
While the accession of the first three countries is considered more manageable due to their smaller populations, Ukraine presents a significantly more complex case. With a population of around 40 million and a major agricultural sector, the country is also facing the consequences of Russia’s war.
Against this backdrop, Brussels is considering a set of “safeguard clauses” designed to protect existing member states once new countries join the EU.
One area under consideration is agriculture, which several EU countries, including France and Poland, regard as strategically important. According to diplomats, one possible option would be to limit Ukraine’s access to part of the Common Agricultural Policy.
However, it remains unclear whether such measures would be sufficient to secure unanimous support for future enlargement. Each accession must be approved by all EU member states and, in particular, ratified by their national parliaments or through referendums where required.
Concerns Over Veto Power
Several EU countries are also concerned about the possibility that a new member could block EU decisions, potentially paralysing initiatives even when they have broad support among other member states.
The issue has been highlighted in the context of Hungary’s repeated use of its veto in relation to Ukraine.
“We need to make sure that we do not let Trojan horses in,” European Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos said in August.
“Such measures are indispensable, not just desirable. It is essential to establish trust and unity within our Union in order to be able to accept new members,” she added.
According to diplomats, limiting the use of veto power is expected to be an important element of the proposed safeguards.
The Commission is also expected to address the protection of the rule of law and common European values. Diplomats have indicated that possible measures could include sanctions if a new member were to backslide on these principles.
Roadmaps for Candidate Countries
Candidate countries have expressed a preference for clear objectives and milestones rather than simply being asked to wait for eventual membership.
“For us, it is very important that our country joins the European Union as soon as possible. And our goal is full membership,” Moldovan Prime Minister Vasile Tofan said on Monday during a working visit to Brussels.
To encourage candidate countries to accept possible safeguard mechanisms, the European Commission is expected to propose earlier participation in certain EU policies and programmes, including Erasmus and research programmes.
“We will soon propose roadmaps for the most advanced candidate countries,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in mid-September.
Montenegro, Albania, Moldova and Ukraine have all set objectives of joining the European Union before the end of 2030, with Montenegro targeting an earlier date of 2028.
A further step in the accession process for Moldova and Ukraine could come as early as next week, with the possible opening of additional negotiating clusters, provided Ukraine adopts the necessary reforms.
The European Commission has previously assessed that both Moldova and Ukraine have met the conditions to open several additional negotiating clusters, while further reforms are required to advance the remaining areas of accession talks.