The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded its economic outlook for the Republic of Moldova for 2027, cutting its forecast for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth from 3.2% to just 2.3%. The downward revision of 0.9 percentage points comes amid inflationary pressures and external vulnerabilities in the Moldovan economy.
According to estimates presented in the October 2026 edition of the World Economic Outlook report, published on October 13, the IMF expects economic growth of only 1.5% this year, maintaining its previous forecast, BANI.MD reports.
At the same time, the international financial institution expects average annual inflation to accelerate from 7.4% in 2026 to 9% in 2027. This would mean that, despite a modest economic recovery, households and businesses would continue to face significant price pressures.
Another worrying sign is the projected development of the current account deficit, an indicator that reflects the imbalance between a country’s external economic flows. According to IMF estimates, the deficit is expected to account for 22% of GDP in 2026 and widen to 22.8% in 2027.
Such a level indicates high external vulnerability, given that the Republic of Moldova relies heavily on imports of energy, consumer goods and equipment. The current account deficit must be covered through capital inflows, investments, loans or other sources of external financing.
The downgrade to the 2027 forecast suggests that Moldova’s economic recovery could be slower than the IMF had previously anticipated. Moreover, the combination of modest economic growth and high inflation risks limiting the recovery of household purchasing power and businesses’ ability to invest.
The IMF’s new estimates come after the World Bank also presented a cautious outlook for Moldova’s economy, forecasting GDP growth of 1.9% in 2026 and 3% in 2027. The differences between the two institutions’ forecasts reflect their differing assessments of the pace of economic recovery.