The Republic of Moldova is preparing for another wave of increases in regulated service prices in 2027. The National Bank of Moldova (NBM) forecasts that regulated prices will rise by an annual average of 16.4%, nearly twice the previous estimate of 8%. The strongest pressure is expected to come from the energy sector, particularly higher tariffs for natural gas, heating and communal services, according to the NBM’s November 2026 Inflation Report, cited by BANI.MD.
The new estimate represents a revision of the central bank’s previous forecast. Compared with the report published in August, the NBM has raised its projected rate of increase in regulated prices for next year by 8.4 percentage points. For 2026, the forecast points to an average increase of 9.6%.
According to the NBM, the main reason for the upward revision is the adjustment of natural gas tariffs, which directly affects the costs of centralised heating and hot water. These pressures are compounded by expected changes in electricity tariffs and other housing and communal services.
“The main contribution to the upward revision of the trajectory of regulated prices comes from the piped gas component,” the National Bank’s report states.
The NBM says its current forecast takes into account tariff increases already announced by the authorities, as well as assumptions regarding further adjustments to certain services. In particular, the central bank anticipates a more pronounced impact from hot water supply services and electricity.
The report also factors in the implementation of temporary measures to compensate households for energy costs during the 2026–2027 cold season. These measures could temporarily reduce the impact of price increases on the Consumer Price Index. However, this effect is expected to be reversed once the heating season ends in April 2027.
Inflationary pressures are not limited to the energy sector. The NBM’s calculations also include adjustments to intercity road transport fares, driven by higher diesel prices, as well as increases in certain public service fees and mandatory third-party liability motor insurance premiums.
The central bank warns that regulated prices will continue to put pressure on inflation in the first half of 2027, as high energy costs are gradually passed on to other goods and services.
Against this backdrop, the NBM forecasts average annual inflation of 6.9% in 2027, down from 7.3% in 2026. Although the overall pace of price increases is expected to slow, regulated prices will continue to rise considerably faster than the average.
According to the forecast, annual inflation is expected to return to the NBM’s target range of 5% ±1.5 percentage points only in the third quarter of 2027.