The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has released data on the external trade of the Republic of Moldova for the first 11 months of 2024, and the conclusions are alarming: “Moldova will end the year with the largest trade deficit in its history, while the outlook for 2025 remains bleak,” stated economist Veaceslav Ionita.
In 2024, Moldova’s exports continued to decline for the second consecutive year, falling below $3.6 billion—over $750 million less than the record $4.33 billion in 2022, according to BANI.MD.
The primary cause of this decline is the loss of export markets in Ukraine, which contributed approximately $800 million to the expansion of exports in 2022. Additionally, most product categories registered substantial declines, except for three agricultural fields:
- Fruits, with exports exceeding $400 million for the first time.
- Oilseeds, which showed outstanding growth.
- Beverages, another branch with positive performance.
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BANI.MD noted that these areas added $150 million to 2024 exports but were insufficient to offset the decline.
In contrast, Moldova’s imports increased, primarily fueled by rising energy prices. While exports are in decline, growing imports significantly exacerbate the trade imbalance.
The trade deficit is expected to surpass $5.5 billion, setting a historical record for the country. This significant imbalance between exports and imports highlights the vulnerabilities of the national economy and the lack of efficient economic policies to support productive branches.
“External trade faithfully reflects the state of Moldova’s economy. The record trade deficit underscores structural problems and the absence of long-term solutions. Agriculture, which continues to be one of the economy’s engines, could offer a glimmer of hope, but investments and consistent policies are needed to harness this potential,” Ionita emphasized.