The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) revised its GDP growth forecast for the Republic of Moldova upward for 2025, increasing it from 1.5% to 2.5%, but lowered its estimate for 2026 from 3.8% to 3%. For 2027, the institution expects economic growth of 3.5%, according to the report “Regional Economic Prospects”, published in February 2026, bani.md reports.
The EBRD experts note that the economy accelerated in the second half of 2025 after a modest start to the year and reached annual growth of 5.2% in the third quarter. Agriculture and construction offset weaker performance in industry and services, while investment and consumption supported domestic demand.
“The economy of the Republic of Moldova has rebounded strongly in recent months, benefiting from European Union assistance and progress in structural reforms,” the report states.
The EBRD says public policy measures mitigated the impact of the energy shock caused by the expiration of the gas transit agreement between Russia and Ukraine. However, external pressures persist, including gas supply disruptions, higher prices for imported electricity, and widening trade and current account deficits.
Inflation rose sharply at the beginning of 2025 due to higher energy and food prices but declined to 6.8% in December 2025 after the authorities tightened monetary policy.
According to the EBRD, the outlook for 2026-2027 still depends on financial support from the European Union and the continuation of structural reforms, amid risks related to energy price volatility and weak external demand.