The European Commission updated its forecast for the Moldovan economy, projecting GDP growth of 1.6% in 2025, up from the 0.9% forecast in May. The autumn report predicts the expansion rate will accelerate to 2.6% in 2026, slightly below the previous projection of 2.8%, and 3.7% in 2027, driven by private investment and stimulus spending under the Reform and Growth Facility, according to Bani.md.
“In the first half of 2025, robust domestic demand, supported by rising real wages, drove the economic recovery, while broad energy support mitigated the impact of winter price increases on household incomes and companies’ operating costs,” the Commission noted.
The report states that private investment will remain the main driver of growth in 2025, while public investment will gradually accelerate through 2027, supported by resources allocated via the Facility. Net exports will continue to weigh on GDP, though their negative effect should diminish over the forecast period. The recovery of agriculture and stimulus spending under the Reform and Growth Facility will support both consumption and investment, sustaining economic growth through 2027.
The labor market is expected to return to a positive trend after declines in 2024 and early 2025. “Rising real wages and persistent demand for skilled workers will boost private consumption and help absorb available labor, including through increased employment in the public and private sectors,” the report adds.
Inflation, which rose to 9.1% in January 2025 due to higher energy prices, fell to 6.9% in September and is projected to drop below 6% by year-end, returning to the National Bank of Moldova’s target range.
The budget deficit is estimated at 3.8% of GDP in 2025 and is expected to rise toward 5% by the end of the forecast period due to current expenditure related to reforms and investments financed through the Facility. Public debt should increase moderately, from 38.2% of GDP in 2024 to 41.1% in 2027.
The Commission cautioned that risks remain high, including potential inflationary pressures, climate-related challenges, and geopolitical uncertainty.