1. How Did the “Gas War” Between Kyiv and Moscow Begin?
The gas conflict between Russia and Ukraine is not new and dates back to the early 2000s. Disagreements have always revolved around claims regarding Kyiv’s debts and Moscow’s obligations. By 2025, despite interruptions in gas supplies to Ukraine, both sides managed to find common ground, driven by mutual interest in extending agreements, even after 2014, when Russia provoked territorial divisions in Donetsk and Luhansk.
The problem became irreconcilable on January 1, 2025, when the last transit contract (signed in 2019) between the Ukrainians and Russians expired. It is evident that after the war in Ukraine began in February 2022, Kyiv’s authorities could no longer renegotiate the agreement with the aggressor state.
2. What Is Gazprom’s Attitude Toward Moldova?
Energy blackmail has always been one of the Kremlin’s weapons against Moldova and other post-Soviet countries. Considering the transit of blue fuel through Ukraine, the “gas war” between Moscow and Kyiv has affected Moldova since its independence. On top of that, the Russian concern has burdened Moldova with a debt that Chisinau does not recognize. Amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the problem has become even more pressing, as it became clear that Kyiv’s administration was unlikely to agree with a Russian company tightly connected to Putin’s administration.
In 2021, former Minister Andrei Spînu and Alexei Miller signed a five-year gas supply extension contract for Moldova, with payments calculated using a new formula. From that point on, Spanu gained the nickname “the Dominator,” thanks to his colleague Ala Nemerenco, who analyzed the body language on Facebook.
Returning to the document, the National Agency for Energy Regulation announced at the time that, according to the agreement, “Gazprom commits to deliver, and S.A. Moldovagaz commits to receive and pay for natural gas volumes of 1,238 million m³ for supplying the right bank of the Dniester River and 2,062 million m³ for the left bank of the Dniester, bringing the total contracted volume by S.A. Moldovagaz to 3,300 million m³ of natural gas.”
The Russian concern ignored the document and later reduced the gas delivery volume. Moldovan authorities redirected the daily supply of 5.7 million cubic meters of gas to Transnistria to secure cheaper electricity from the Cuciurgan power plant. Chisinau officials repeatedly announced that the right bank of the Dniester does not pay for this volume of blue fuel.
At the end of 2024, Moldova’s former Energy Minister Victor Parlicov met Alexei Miller of Gazprom. The agenda included gas supplies to Transnistria, and the Russian side suggested that Chisinau reach an agreement with Kyiv.
3. Moldova’s (Nonexistent) Debt or How Much Gazprom Wants It to Pay
Gazprom demands over $700 million from Moldovagaz, of which more than $400 million represents alleged debts of Chisinau, and about $300 million are penalties.
Chisinau does not recognize this debt, and following an audit conducted in 2023 by specialists from Norway and the United Kingdom, it announced that Moldova owes only $8.6 million. However, Gazprom was unsatisfied with the analysis and continued to demand the payment.
Pro-Russian politicians in Chisinau fuel speculations about the debt by claiming that Moldova stopped paying its bills after pro-European forces took power. The audit, however, revealed that a large portion of the arrears date back to the period between 1991 and 2002.
4. Why Does Moldova Risk Power Outages and Rising Electricity Prices?
Since December 2022, Moldovan authorities have allocated the entire volume of Russian gas supplied to the country to the separatists on the left bank of the Dniester River to purchase electricity from Cuciurgan at a reasonable price. At the end of 2024, Vadim Krasnoselski, the leader of Tiraspol, issued a decree declaring that the right bank of the Dniester River would lose electricity if the region failed to receive blue fuel.
When the transit contract through Ukraine ended on January 1, 2025. The Cuciurgan power plant transitioned to coal, with Tiraspol’s coal reserves projected to last only 30-50 days. Transnistria began enforcing blackouts of up to eight hours daily to manage the shortage.
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The Republic of Moldova buys electricity from alternative sources, including the European exchange, where prices are higher. Consequently, electricity tariffs increased to 4.68 lei/kWh. However, a risk of blackouts remains if consumption needs are not met.
5. The Blame Game and Theater of the Absurd: What Do Chisinau, Tiraspol, and Moscow Say?
Tiraspol vehemently claims that Chisinau’s administration refuses to provide aid to resolve the humanitarian crisis. It was one of the initial official positions after Gazprom announced a complete halt to gas deliveries to Moldova. Vadim Krasnoselski and Vitali Ignatiev quickly issued harsh statements accusing constitutional authorities of refusing to find solutions to assist the left bank and the localities on the right bank.
Chisinau’s government and presidency responded with information. Maia Sandu stated that Russia could deliver gas through the TurkStream pipeline, bypassing Ukraine, but is unilaterally violating the contract, valid until 2026. Prime Minister Dorin Recean revealed that constitutional authorities offered separatists the option to organize exchange-based purchases. Tiraspol refused the proposal.
After these statements, OSCE Chairperson Elina Vantolen visited Chisinau. Krasnoselski justified himself to her, claiming that Transnistria could not conduct exchange purchases because it lacked accounts in dollars and euros. Chisinau quickly debunked this claim. Moldovagaz CEO Vadim Ceban clarified that Tiraspoltransgaz must pay in Moldovan lei and noted that separatist leaders had done so previously.
Ceban further suggested that the gas supply issue in Transnistria had surpassed Gazprom and Moldovagaz’s competencies. During an RLIVE TV studio appearance, he stated that Gazprom did not notify Moldovan officials of potential supply cuts during Parlicov’s November 2024 meeting with Miller.
From Moscow, familiar narratives emerged. Dmitry Peskov and Maria Zakharova accused Moldova and Ukraine of conspiring with the West to deprive Transnistria of gas. Zakharova even labeled the situation “neo-Nazism.” Meanwhile, Russia’s embassy in Chișinău issued a statement reiterating the Kremlin’s manipulative narratives about Moldova’s energy crisis.
In response, Moldova’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs condemned these falsehoods, summoning Chargé d’Affaires Alexandr Andreev. Moldova presented its stance on the unacceptable nature of such statements aimed at undermining the country’s political and economic stability.
6. What’s Next?
People are most concerned about how they will get through the winter and how high their bills will be. It is clear that the population needs safety, comfort, and stability, but they find themselves in a situation where none of these needs are met.
Without gas, the separatist authorities will need to find resources to replace it, or the region risks losing gas, heating, and electricity entirely. One possible solution is for Transnistrians to buy coal from Ukraine in exchange for electricity. Maia Sandu discussed this topic with Volodymyr Zelenskyy, but implementing such a solution would require agreements from Tiraspol and Moscow.
Vice Prime Minister for Reintegration Oleg Serebrian and the so-called Transnistrian foreign minister Vitali Ignatiev were supposed to meet in the coming days to discuss the humanitarian crisis. Officially, the Bureau for Reintegration announced that representatives from Chisinau and Tiraspol were still discussing the organization of the meeting. However, behind the scenes, rumors suggest that the meeting will likely not take place.
Is Tiraspol ready to acknowledge exchange-based purchases as a solution for the region?
While Krasnoselski might consider such scenarios, it is unlikely the Kremlin will give the green light to resolve the crisis.
Pro-Russian Telegram channels have begun circulating rumors that Moscow may resume gas deliveries to the left bank of the Dniester. However, it would condition Transnistrians not to sell electricity to the right bank. Following all the accusations made jointly by Tiraspol and Moscow against Chisinau, the Kremlin might once again try to position itself as the savior after creating an artificial crisis and leaving thousands of people in cold and darkness for weeks.
Officially, there have been no public statements about such decisions from Moscow or from officials on either side of the Dniester River.
We should also note that Vadim Krasnoselski visited Russia between January 10 and 14, 2025. He has made no public announcements about his discussions with Moscow officials or the meetings he attended.
7. How Much Does Chișinău Pay to Escape Russia’s Energy Blackmail, and What Will Transnistria Do Without Selling Electricity?
The bills will reflect the price of breaking free from Russia’s energy influence. Moldova has gas reserves sufficient to last until spring, and in recent weeks, it has shown it can withstand the absence of electricity from Transnistria by purchasing it from exchanges.
Prime Minister Dorin Recean promised that tariffs would not increase over the next six months.
However, bills have already risen significantly, draining household budgets. The increased payments for electricity and heating are the price the right bank of the Dniester River pays for energy independence. This sensitive topic could become a new manipulation narrative ahead of the 2025 parliamentary elections, and pro-Russian actors in Chișinău will not hesitate to use the situation to build their image and gain political dividends.
The separatist leader recently admitted that Russian gas has served as “humanitarian aid” for the region, while Dmitry Peskov let slip that Transnistrians survived thanks to Gazprom’s supplies.
If Transnistria receives gas but refuses to sell electricity to the right bank, the separatist administration will lose a significant portion of its revenue for the so-called budget. How will Tiraspol cover the “hundreds of millions of euros” gap? (Editor’s note: Vadim Krasnoselski stated that Chisinau’s annual electricity purchases from the left bank amounted to this sum.)
We await responses from officials on the left bank. However, we are confident there will again be accusations copied from Maria Zakharova’s speeches.