In September, parliamentary elections will take place in the Republic of Moldova. Citizens will choose their representatives in Parliament and decide to whom they entrust the power to form a government that will administer the state and govern for the next few years, IPN reports.
The vote this year is a special one. We could say that it is not necessarily a vote that legitimizes a power for four years, but a more important vote than in other similar elections.
Why can we say this? Because of the geopolitical context and the events that mark the world. From east to west, from south to north, all analysts, experts, and some politicians say that the world is being reshaped. It is a global confrontation between authoritarian regimes and democratic ones. There is an open war on the border of the Republic of Moldova, a hybrid war being waged by the Russian Federation on the entire territory of NATO, and, recently, another war has erupted between Israel and Iran.
The world is changing from day to day, and at the end of these conflicts, we all expect to see a new world order and a transition to a different stage compared to what we have known in the last 30 years.
Therefore, the vote on September 28th has a much greater weight than on other occasions.
In recent years, the Republic of Moldova has been in a constant struggle to find its own path, ever since declaring independence. In the 2000s, many citizens were unsure of which direction to choose – joining the EU or remaining in the Russian sphere of influence. However, we recently had a referendum that solidified the majority’s will: joining the European Union.
The predictions regarding the outcome of the September elections are not optimistic. The ruling party, PAS, does not seem capable of obtaining a score that would allow them to form a parliamentary majority. It is eroded, there have been many mistakes, and it has governed during extremely difficult times – with a severe pandemic and a war right on the border of Moldova.
The mood of the population is affected both by these difficult times and by the mistakes made in governance. Expectations were high when PAS came to power, but they were not fulfilled.
The truth must be faced, because only this way can solutions – as many as there are – be identified for finding a formula of governance that ensures a pro-European majority.
What would it mean for Russia to come to power in the Republic of Moldova?
In these conditions, it is necessary to analyze and project the future of the Republic of Moldova, in the scenario where a pro-Russian political force comes to power. We all know that the pro-Russian forces in Moldova are completely dependent on Moscow. They do not have full decision-making capacity and do almost nothing without “instructions from the Kremlin” – neither in domestic politics, nor in foreign policy. Since the moment when the PSRM sent its deputies to Moscow (in 2020) until the years when Shor coordinates his party from the capital of the Russian Federation, and Dodon receives orders by phone, nothing has changed.
Therefore, we can say directly: what would it mean for Russia to come to power in the Republic of Moldova?
It is evident to everyone that, from a political point of view, a strategic reorientation would occur. The pro-European path would be blocked, and the state institutions would be taken over by Moscow’s people.
The first aspect that we must reflect on are the security implications that these transformations would bring.
Moldova would become, in a short time, a hostile state towards Ukraine and Romania. It is well known Russia’s objective in the war in Ukraine. Moscow aims to encircle Kiev like a pair of pliers. The fact that Maia Sandu made public information about the intention of bringing 10,000 Russian soldiers to Transnistria shows the level of concern.
The Russians desire the conquest of Odessa, and the opening of a new front – the deployment of troops in western Ukraine, namely Transnistria – would greatly increase the chances of success.
The Republic of Moldova would be put in the position of aggressor, it would become a new Belarus, even if Maia Sandu were to remain in the position of president. History shows us that the Moldovan president can be temporarily suspended so that the president of Parliament can sign the necessary documents in their place.
Romania would have an unstable neighboring state, a strategic ally of Russia, at the eastern border of the European Union and NATO – with a significant increase in risks and a high potential for the intensification of hybrid warfare.
Pro-European citizens in the Republic of Moldova would wake up overnight, drawn into a conflict. Most likely, at that moment, Russia’s rhetoric would change very little. The word “peace”, obsessively used, would be transformed into a message like: “Moldova must contribute to the establishment of peace in Ukraine by allowing Russian troops to enter its territory.”
What would a Russian presence in Chisinau mean from an economic standpoint?
In the last four years, the European Union has provided the Republic of Moldova with assistance of 1.6 billion euros – in the form of grants and loans. The World Bank offered 730 million dollars, also through grants and loans.
These funds were directed towards the development of the state, infrastructure, and to support the population. They did not necessarily lead to an immediate change in the standard of living, but they kept the Moldovan state afloat. Moldova remains a state that depends on external financial injections.
While Moscow was using gas as a blackmail weapon and increasing prices, Romania and the European Union were helping Chisinau to cope with the energy crisis.
A pro-Russian government in Chisinau would inevitably lead to the freezing of European funds. You cannot financially support a state that becomes hostile.
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As a consequence, foreign investments and tourism would decrease, and some companies that are currently operating in Moldova may withdraw due to the increased instability.
Could the Russian Federation financially support the Republic of Moldova, like the EU did?
The Russian Federation does not have a history of economic programs comparable to those of the EU or IMF. It has not offered massive loans after 2022. There is no precedent in which Russia has brought prosperity – not even to its own population. The only constant: the enrichment of oligarchs.
Maybe Russia would deliver gas cheaper, but only on the condition that Moldova gives up diversifying its energy sources.
Conclusion: a pro-Russian government means losing billions in Western funding, a major risk of impoverishment, and severe energy dependence.
What would all of this mean for Moldovan society?
– A high risk of internal tensions between the pro-European segment (mostly from Chisinau and among young people) and the pro-Russian segment (from rural and autonomous areas).
– Increase in Soviet-style Moldovan nationalism (anti-Romanian).
– Suppression of unionist or Romanian-speaking discourse.
Citizens who have enjoyed the benefits of the Association Agreement and the freedom to travel to the West would suddenly find themselves living in an isolated state. From a friendly state of the EU, Moldova would be transformed into an adversary of European and Romanian values and principles.
In short, these are serious topics for reflection. All of these things must be carefully analyzed by every citizen, even those of Russian ethnicity who value freedom.
In short, these are serious topics for reflection. All of these things must be carefully analyzed by every citizen, even those of Russian ethnicity who value freedom.
Moldovans must give a rational vote, not an emotional one. It’s natural to have discontentment. But a vote based on anger can have much more serious consequences than the anger itself. It’s indisputable that PAS has made many mistakes, but the alternative is incomparably worse. If Moldova is caught in a global realignment on the side of Russia, it could mean 30-50 lost years. A return to the 1940s. A regression to the times of the USSR.
Thirty years of independence would be wasted. And Putin’s regime could be even harsher than the Soviet one.