The European Commission is preparing a more cautious roadmap for Ukraine’s EU accession negotiations, setting limited progress targets for 2027 while avoiding any commitment to a membership date, according to a document obtained by POLITICO.
Brussels has long sought to bring Ukraine closer to the European Union as part of a broader effort to secure the country’s future after Russia’s war. Potential EU membership is seen as a way to firmly anchor Kyiv within European institutions and make further Russian aggression more difficult.
In the document, Brussels urges Kyiv to “urgently and significantly accelerate the pace of reforms in the area of the rule of law”. Meeting key requirements in this field during the first half of 2027 is necessary before negotiations in individual policy areas can be provisionally concluded, the roadmap states.
The document, which is part of the European Commission’s enlargement package due to be presented on Wednesday, identifies seven policy areas in which Ukraine could provisionally complete negotiations next year. It highlights how much further Ukraine still has to go before joining the Union, as well as the difficulty of implementing the required reforms while the country remains at war, News.ro reports.
Moldova and Ukraine Could Follow Separate Accession Paths
The document also points to an increasingly significant divergence between Ukraine and Moldova, whose accession efforts have long progressed in parallel. Moldova is now considered to be in a position to make substantially faster progress, raising the prospect that the two countries’ accession processes could effectively be decoupled.
While Brussels is targeting progress in seven policy areas for Ukraine by 2027, Moldova could provisionally conclude negotiations in more than 20 areas, according to the document.
Ukraine applied for EU membership on February 28, 2022, just four days after Russia launched its full-scale invasion. Moldova and Ukraine were granted candidate status together in June 2022 and officially began accession negotiations on the same day in June 2024.
Since then, Kyiv has completed a detailed screening of how closely its legislation aligns with EU rules, and negotiations have officially opened in several major policy areas. In October, both Ukraine and Moldova launched discussions on the EU internal market, competitiveness and economic growth.
A Long Road Ahead
EU membership requires much more than a political commitment. Candidate countries must align their legislation and institutions with EU standards across 35 negotiating areas, commonly referred to in Brussels jargon as “chapters”. These cover everything from agriculture and food safety to competition rules, judicial independence and foreign policy.
The Commission’s roadmap identifies only seven such areas in which Ukraine could provisionally conclude negotiations in 2027. Education and culture are targeted for the first half of the year, followed by intellectual property, employment and social policy, industrial policy, research, external relations, and foreign and security policy in the second half.
The Commission acknowledges that the changes are complex and require extensive consultations, time and resources. To help Ukraine make progress, Brussels has established a dedicated working group to provide additional support to the Ukrainian authorities.
The challenges are compounded by the war, which places extraordinary demands on Ukraine’s government and parliament as they work to adopt and implement the legislation required for EU membership.
In the document, the Commission refrains from committing to a deadline for Ukraine’s accession negotiations. It is taking an equally cautious approach towards other leading EU candidates, including Albania and Moldova. Montenegro is the exception, with June 2027 set as the target date for signing an accession treaty.
Ukraine’s roadmap is described as a “living document” that can be updated as discussions progress. This leaves open the possibility of concluding negotiations in additional policy areas more quickly if reforms advance faster than expected.
The Shadow of War
The uncertainty also reflects the broader challenge of admitting a country that is still fighting an existential war.
EU rules do not explicitly prohibit a country at war from becoming a member. However, Ukraine’s accession would raise difficult questions concerning security, territory and the obligations EU countries would assume towards a member state under the bloc’s mutual assistance provisions.
Even a peace agreement would not automatically resolve these issues or remove the need for Ukraine to complete its reforms. And provisionally concluding negotiations in specific policy areas would still leave Kyiv with further steps before accession, including an accession treaty requiring approval and ratification.
The Commission also wants discussions on Ukraine’s two remaining stalled negotiating clusters to begin by the end of 2026. These are Cluster Four, covering the green agenda and sustainable connectivity, and Cluster Five, addressing resources, agriculture and cohesion.
According to the document, the Commission considers Ukraine to have met the necessary conditions and urges the accession conference to make every effort to open the remaining negotiating clusters before the end of the year.
Opening these clusters would allow Ukraine to advance negotiations in the remaining policy areas, although the pace of further progress would continue to depend on reforms and relevant decisions by EU member states.