NBM revised its inflation forecast! Higher inflation in 2024 and 2025

The National Bank of Moldova has revised upwards its inflation forecast for 2024 and 2025 by 0.3 percentage points and 0.1 percentage points, according to the Inflation Report presented by NBM Governor Anca Dragu, writes bani.md.

The annual inflation rate will oscillate in the 5.0 percent target and remain in the plus-minus 1.5 percentage points over the forecast horizon.

“The annual inflation rate will continue to decrease slightly in the first quarter of the forecast, after which it will increase until early next year, after which it will decrease slightly until the end of the forecast horizon (Q1 2026), except Q4 2025 when it will increase insignificantly,” Dragu pointed out.

The annual inflation rate will peak at 6.4 percent in the first quarter of 2025 and will reach a low of 3.5 percent in the third quarter of 2025.

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Average annual inflation will be 5.0 percent in 2024 and 4.6 percent in 2025.

The annual pace of inflation is driven by the positive contribution of all CPI components except regulated prices in Q2 2024 and fuel prices for three consecutive quarters starting in Q3 2025, where they will have a negative impact.

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