The economy of the Republic of Moldova will grow by just 0.6% in 2025, the lowest growth rate among emerging countries in the region, according to the latest World Economic Outlook (WEO). The International Monetary Fund (IMF) stated it.
The new IMF forecasts show that Moldova’s GDP will rise by 0.6% this year, following a modest 0.5% growth in 2024 (the National Bureau of Statistics reports an even lower figure of 0.1%). Economic growth will accelerate to 2.5% in 2026, reaching the 5% growth target promised by the government only by 2030, IPN reports, citing mold-street.com.
In its October 2024 report, the IMF projected a much more optimistic outlook, estimating growth of 2.6% in 2024 and 3.7% in 2025.
The IMF also predicts a limited reduction in Moldova’s current account deficit, from 16.1% of GDP in 2024 to 14.5% in 2025 and 13.8% in 2026.
Regarding inflation, the IMF forecasts an average annual price increase of 8% in 2025 and 5.9% in 2026, following a 4.7% rate last year. It marks a revision from the October 2024 forecast, which anticipated 5% inflation in 2025.
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These forecasts come just ahead of the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank in Washington.
In comparison, regional economic growth projections are more optimistic:
- Romania: 1.6% growth in 2025
- Ukraine: 2.0%
- North Macedonia: 3.2%
- Albania: 3.8%
- Regional average: 2.1%
Moldova thus faces a challenging economic trajectory amid broader regional and global uncertainties.