Industrial production in Moldova’s Transnistrian region fell by around 20% last year, while the region’s gross domestic product declined by more than 19%, according to a new study by the Friedrich Ebert Foundation and IDIS “Viitorul.”
The findings were presented on Thursday and reported by IPN.
The study’s authors say the Transnistrian region is undergoing a structural transformation of its economy. According to the researchers, an economic model based on preferential access to energy and administrative control of the exchange rate is gradually losing its ability to generate income and maintain social stability.
The economic downturn has been accompanied by falling household incomes and a widening gap with the right bank of the Dniester.
Average monthly wages in the region stood at around 7,700 Moldovan lei in 2025, almost half the average wage on the right bank of the Dniester.
Depopulation is another major challenge identified by the study. The region’s population has fallen by more than 37%, from approximately 731,000 people in 1990 to around 460,000 in 2025.
However, the authors estimate that only about 295,000 people currently live in the region, while approximately 165,000 are abroad.
External exports and sales to the right bank of the Dniester fell by more than 50% in 2025, largely due to reduced activity in the energy and metallurgy sectors.
At the same time, around 77% of the region’s external exports last year went to the European Union market.
According to the study, 2026 marks a shift in the approach to the Transnistrian issue. Alongside political negotiations, Moldova’s authorities are placing greater emphasis on economic, fiscal and institutional instruments within their remit, including through the creation of a Convergence Fund.
The authors argue that the region’s current vulnerabilities create both risks and opportunities for economic reintegration.
They say public policy should focus on strengthening existing economic ties and gradually expanding them in a way that remains predictable for residents and businesses.