The Republic of Moldova remains a net exporter of sunflower oil, but this position is becoming increasingly fragile, according to an analysis by economist Iurie Rija.
In the first quarter of 2026, Moldova exported about 16.8 thousand tons of sunflower oil worth over 382 million lei, while imports reached roughly 4 thousand tons valued at nearly 125 million lei. Although exports exceeded imports more than fourfold in volume, the structure of the market points to deeper weaknesses.
A key issue lies in pricing and value added. Moldova mainly exports cheaper oil at an average of 23 lei per liter, while importing more expensive, processed oil at around 31 lei per liter. This indicates that the country largely exports raw or minimally processed products, while importing finished goods with higher added value.
A warning sign emerged in March, when imports exceeded exports for the first time during the quarter. Exports fell sharply to just 737 tons, while imports climbed to over 1.4 thousand tons, temporarily reversing the trade balance.
Geographical concentration adds another layer of risk. Over 70% of Moldovan sunflower oil exports go to Italy, followed by about 24% to Romania. Such dependence makes the sector vulnerable to demand shifts in just a few markets.
On the import side, dependence is even more pronounced: nearly 90% of sunflower oil imports come from Ukraine, meaning any disruption there could quickly affect domestic supply.
The market structure itself is also uneven. Exports are dominated by a small number of large players, while imports are spread across dozens of companies—highlighting an imbalance that could limit competition and resilience.
Overall, while Moldova still holds a strong export position in sunflower oil, the combination of low value-added exports, market concentration, and import dependence suggests that this advantage may not be sustainable without structural changes.