The BNM forecasts inflation of 32.2% for 2022 and 26.3% in the first quarter of 2023. The data were presented by Governor Octavian Armașu, during a press conference, where the Inflation Report was presented no. 4, November 2022.
“The National Bank of Moldova (NBM) forecasts that in the next period the annual inflation rate will change its trajectory and begin to decrease. The effect is produced as a result of the NBM’s monetary policy decisions from the last year. Taking into account the current forecasts, the NBM is going to switch from a restrictive monetary policy to a stimulating one. Thus, the aim is to create favorable financing conditions for the business environment and the population.
Annual inflation will reach its maximum level in the fourth quarter of 2022, and then enter a new phase, decreasing for the next forecast period. This decrease in inflation will take place on all components, according to the central bank’s forecast,” the NBM message states.
Among the main domestic uncertainties are the supply of energy resources and their price, the adjustment of tariffs, the flow of refugees, as well as weather conditions.
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We can also see external risks – reduced global supply, but also high quotes for energy resources and other raw materials. At the same time, many uncertainties remain related to the war in Ukraine.
In February 2023, the NBM will present the next report on inflation.