National Bank of Moldova has warned that inflation in the Republic of Moldova will accelerate again in the coming quarters because of rising energy and fuel prices, as well as the impact of the war in the Middle East on international markets, according to its latest Inflation Report cited by BANI.MD.
The central bank projects inflation at around 7.3% in the second quarter of 2026, while in the third quarter it could rise to approximately 8%. The bank expects inflation to peak in the fourth quarter of 2026 and the beginning of 2027, when it may exceed 8.5%. The annual inflation rate is expected to return to the target range set by the National Bank only in the second quarter of 2027.
According to the report, annual inflation fell to 4.85% in January 2026 after the effects of the 2025 energy price increases faded. However, inflation rose again in March to 5.81%, mainly because higher fuel prices followed the conflict in the Middle East.
The National Bank estimates that inflation will continue rising throughout 2026 and will remain above the upper limit of the target corridor for three consecutive quarters before returning to the target range in the second quarter of 2027.
The report also highlights the impact of the war in the Middle East on global markets. According to the central bank, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz triggered “an unprecedented energy shock,” while Brent crude oil prices increased by 59% in March alone, marking one of the sharpest jumps in recent decades.
At the same time, the bank warned that higher energy costs could also drive food prices upward through disruptions in the fertilizer market and rising logistics costs. During the first months of the year, imported vegetables, especially those from Turkey, generated the strongest inflationary pressure on food prices.
The report also identified several unusual economic trends. Although inflation remains high, domestic demand continues to have a disinflationary effect, indicating that households and businesses remain cautious about spending and investment. The National Bank expects aggregate demand to remain weak throughout most of the forecast period.
In response to the new risks, the Executive Committee of the National Bank raised the base interest rate on May 7 from 5% to 6.5% annually in an effort to limit inflationary pressures and secondary effects caused by energy shocks.