Economist Veaceslav Ionita has issued a stark warning after reviewing the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics: Moldova’s industrial sector is deeply stagnating, showing clear signs of structural decline, bani.md reports.
Between 2016 and 2019, industrial output recorded modest growth. However, consecutive declines over the past three years have erased these gains. In 2021, the sector briefly rebounded with a 12.1% increase in output, but it sharply contracted by 5.1% in 2022 and 3.6% in 2023. In the first quarter of 2025, industrial production dropped another 1.2%.
Over three years, Moldova has lost more than 10% of its industrial volume, returning to 2015 levels. Net industrial growth over the past decade amounts to just 3%—a pace Ionita bluntly calls “absolute stagnation.”
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Key Sectors Suffer Sharp Losses
The food industry contracted nearly 20%, directly impacting Moldova’s export potential. The textile industry shrank by 11%, severely affecting the lohn segment, once a cornerstone of Moldovan exports. Meanwhile, the automotive sector—Moldova’s largest export-oriented industry—also declined by 11%, raising fears of lasting damage if the drop is not merely cyclical.
Ionita underscores a dangerous pattern: fragile growth cycles repeatedly end in steep downturns. Without a coherent industrial strategy, targeted support for competitive sectors, and investment in modernization, Moldova’s industry remains stuck in a vicious cycle of regression.
Consequences Already Taking Hold
The consequences are far-reaching. Job losses continue to mount, emigration is accelerating, and domestic production capacity is deteriorating. As local goods vanish from the market, imports increasingly replace them. Ionita warns that these trends threaten Moldova’s economic competitiveness, fiscal stability, and national security.
“Moldova’s industry has been in free fall for three years. Without clear direction, investment, or effective industrial policies, any cyclical growth is a mere illusion,” Ionita concludes. “The question is: how much longer can we afford to stand still?”