By December 31, 2025, Moldova’s state debt is expected to reach around 136.44 billion lei, a significant increase from the estimated debt for the end of 2024. Most of this debt (61.1%) will be external, while 38.9% will be domestic debt. The total increase in debt is projected to be 12.25 billion lei, driven by positive net external and internal borrowing, according to the Ministry of Finance.
The state debt as a percentage of GDP is forecasted to reach 39.2% by the end of 2025, with further increases expected in the coming years. In 2026, the debt could rise by 12%, and by 2027, it could reach approximately 167.03 billion lei, or 40.2% of GDP.
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The government also plans to issue external state loans worth 9.5 billion lei (about 520.3 million USD) in 2025 while repaying 7.44 billion lei (about 407.8 million USD) in external loans.
The average interest rate for domestic bonds is estimated to be around 6.6% annually. New external loans will have a minimum maturity of 12 years, with a preference for multilateral lenders.
External debt is expected to reach 83.32 billion lei by the end of 2025, an increase of 4.3% from 2024, but its share in GDP will slightly decrease to 23.9%.