The Republic of Moldova has revised its 2026 economic growth forecast downward. According to the latest report from the World Bank, the economy is expected to expand by only 1.9%, below the 2.7% forecast made at the beginning of the year, reports Bani.md.
The April “ECA Economic Update” report also maintains a 3.8% growth forecast for 2027. Moldova is among the countries in the region seeing the largest downward revisions—about 0.8 percentage points—alongside Romania and Georgia. In Turkey, the adjustment is even larger, around 0.9 points, while some Central Asian economies, like Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, recorded small upward revisions.
The report highlights a regional slowdown: after 2.6% growth in 2025, Europe and Central Asia are projected to grow only 2.1–2.2% in 2026. Rising energy costs and geopolitical tensions are cited as key factors behind weaker growth.
For Moldova, vulnerabilities remain significant due to energy import dependence and slow recovery following the 2024 stagnation (0.1% growth). The regional context offers limited support: Ukraine is expected to grow by 1.2% amid ongoing conflict, while Romania’s growth is forecast at just 0.5% due to strict fiscal measures.
Inflation in the region remains elevated, at around 4.8% in 2026, maintaining pressure on living costs. The World Bank warns that energy-importing countries will face additional fiscal pressures, and that a prolonged or intensified conflict could disrupt global energy flows, weakening growth and raising inflation further.