Annual inflation in Moldova declined to 4.2% in December 2023, or by 4.4 percentage points compared to September, slightly below expectations.
According to the National Bank of Moldova, the slight deviation is mainly due to an unexpected decrease in the electricity tariff in November and a statistical reflection of compensations provided to the population for energy resources during the cold period of the year.
“The restrictive monetary policy measures adopted by the NBM in the necessary time, from summer 2021 to the end of 2022, together with the strengthening of the leu and the reduction of regional prices for energy resources and foodstuffs, have made a significant contribution to the reduction of inflation,” the ministry stated.
The annual inflation rate will fluctuate slightly around the 5% target, remaining within a range of ±1.5 percentage points over the next eight quarters. Aggregate demand will be deflationary throughout the forecast period due to weak external demand, reduced consumption financing, and tight monetary conditions. A strong harvest in 2023 and positive fiscal stimulus starting from the second quarter of 2025 will mitigate the decline in aggregate demand.
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According to the National Bank, average annual inflation will be around 4.7% this year and 4.5% next year.
“The trends anticipated in previous rounds remain broadly valid. The inflation forecast has been lowered slightly for the first quarter of 2024 and raised for the remainder of the comparable period. The forecasts for core inflation and regulated prices have been raised, mainly due to higher excise taxes and, accordingly, a reassessment of the effect of reflecting the effect of the compensation provided to households for energy during the cold season. Food and fuel price forecasts were reduced,” the NBM said.
The inflation report for February 2024, containing the analysis of the domestic and foreign economic situation and medium-term inflation forecast, will be presented by the NBM President and published on the official website on February 13.