Transnistria risks losing the free gas provided by Russia, and Chisinau might lose access to cheap electricity. Although “Moldovagaz” and “Gazprom” have a five-year natural gas supply contract, the Ministry of Energy warns that Gazprom might unilaterally terminate the contract, as noted in a draft decision currently under public consultation. The contract limits the daily supply to 5.7 million m³ since October 2022.
Starting in December 2022, the authorities allocated the entire volume of natural gas for consumption on the left bank of the Dniester and electricity production by the Cuciurgan Thermal Power Plant for the right bank.
The Moldovan authorities have implemented measures to reduce energy consumption, successfully cutting natural gas usage by about 44% in the 2022-2023 heating season and 25% in the 2023-2024 season compared to 2021-2022.
Nevertheless, the risk of natural gas supply interruptions persists due to external circumstances, beyond the Moldovan authorities’ limited control. The situation remains uncertain regarding the organization of natural gas transport through Ukrainian territory starting January 1, 2025.
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“If natural gas suppliers interrupt deliveries, serious problems could arise for the security of gas supply to the left bank of the Dniester. Although the infrastructure can handle transport for both banks, consumers on the left bank might struggle to purchase natural gas at market prices. If needed, ‘Energocom’ could provide the necessary gas supply to vulnerable consumers in Transnistria, provided that they make an advance payment for procurement and transportation costs,” the Ministry of Energy document states.