According to analyst Vladimir Socor, Transnistria is no longer destabilising Moldova. He stated on RLIVE TV that the Gagauz leadership has taken over the “powers” and Tiraspol is now seeking stability to allow Sheriff’s managers to continue their business.
The international expert suggests that the visits of pro-Russian parties to Moscow indicate Putin’s desire to bring them together and find a common candidate for the upcoming Moldovan presidential elections in October 2024.
“The main source of destabilisation is not Transnistria, but rather the leadership of Gagauzia. Moldovan political parties with pro-Russian leanings have recently visited Moscow. One after the other went to Moscow the Socialists, the Soritists, the Vozrojdenie and Mrs. Guțul.
All four individuals have confirmed their attendance at the International Economic Forum in St. Petersburg. The intention is to bring them together around a table and unite them into a political bloc, from which a candidate for the presidential elections will emerge,” Vladimir Socor said on “Realitatea te privește” with Valentina Ursu.
Analysts believe that Moscow may withdraw its support for Igor Dodon in the upcoming elections due to his track record of losing several elections and disappointing the Kremlin. The author also suggests that Russia could support groups that claim to be pro-European but do not necessarily promote pro-European policies.
Vladimir Socor suggests that Russia’s policies towards Moldova have become more radical. Moscow’s aim is to gain full control over the country, rather than just imposing economic blockades and keeping it in a grey zone.
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“Prior to the conflict in Ukraine, Russia was not attempting to annex Moldova. Its goal was to gain control of the system through obstructive actions. (…)Russia aimed to keep Moldova in a state of political ambiguity, with unstable coalition governments of various orientations. Meanwhile, Moldova has witnessed the ascent of authorities aligned with the Republic of Moldova. (…)Russia currently seeks complete control over Moldova,” Socor said.
According to the expert, the Russian administration may seek support from other political actors, in addition to the pro-Moscow parties in Chisinau, who oppose the current government.