Moldovans reduced their consumption and were thrifty because they had a more gloomy perception of their financial gains. In 2023, this perception will change. People will become more optimistic in this sense, which means a restoration of consumption, forecasts IDIS Viitorul expert Veaceslav Ioniță, according to IPN.
“Inflation will go down. The price of energy resources will go down. Other prices will see modest increases. The income of the population, once inflation will be low, will be higher. The NBM, once the danger of inflation has passed, must relax the monetary policy, and the banks must be more active. In this way, let the engines of the economy be started, including by generating the consumption of the population”, says Veaceslav Ioniță.
The expert mentions that the NBM measures that led to the increase in the price of money and the tightening of lending conditions led Moldovans not to take out loans, and because of this, the volume of consumer loans registered a decrease.
Veaceslav Ioniță says that after three years of crisis, which led to a decrease in population consumption, in 2023 the situation will be restored.
“Interest on consumer loans fell from 37% in 2000 to 20% in 2007. In 2021 it was the lowest interest in the history of the country at 4.6%, which caused the explosion of consumer loans. A sharp rise in interest rates followed. In the third quarter of 2022, it reached around 16%. Currently, there is a slight decrease. In the first half of the current year, it could reach below 10%”, estimates the economist.
According to him, the danger of inflation has exhausted itself, it has a downward trend, and the NBM will start to relax the monetary policy. “The recommendation is that, after we had a crisis in 2022, we had a year of reducing the consumption of the population, to encourage consumption, so that the population restores its behavior and lifestyle in the usual way”, emphasized Veaceslav Ioniță, estimating that in 2023 the incomes of the population will register a considerable increase.